With only a few weeks left in May deadline by which the US is obliged to withdraw all of its troops as per dictates of a peace deal, it signed with the Afghan Taliban, Biden has indicated that Washington will not be able to withdraw its troops from Afghanistan due to tactical reasons, raising serious doubts over its commitment.
In response, the Taliban resolutely expressed their displeasure and said any delay in troops’ withdrawal would be considered as a violation of the Doha agreement and in such a case, the Taliban will be compelled to continue its armed struggle against foreign troops.
When Biden took office, he faced two policy choices; just call troops homes or discern something else to ensure the Taliban comply with what they agreed to in the deal, risking an unprecedented uptick in violence. Of some of the initial decisions which Biden took, one was a directive to review the deal which made Ghani quite happy and Taliban quite astonished as if Biden has decided to take some extra-ordinary decision; to abandon the deal. But the things are not simple as Ghani might think.
Biden is not different than a mountaineer who has finally ascended to the peak and can see the entire universe under his feet along with his team. Biden has seen himself elevated from the position of vice president to the top slot of president. When he was VP, he knew the whole responsibility would be on Obama’s shoulders if talks get scuttle but not this time. This time, he is in charge of everything, having more burden than ever. He is well aware of the pledges he made to pull out troops from Afghanistan. It was the Biden who convinced his boss Obama to initiate secret talks with the Afghan Taliban in a bid to end the conflict. Similarly, Biden has witnessed those talks failing mainly due to the regional actors’ concerns related to being disregarded, a reason for him being too inclusive in his approach.
Biden who knows his difficulties than any other body has a clear idea of who are they battling against and who are they supporting in the Afghan conundrum. He knows he has to bypass catch-22, orchestrated by former president Donald Trump. He is also well aware of the fact that there is no written consensus on what should be the best case after May 1.
At the moment, immense pressure is getting piled up on two sides at the moment, Biden and Ghani. However, on the very opposite side, the Taliban sitting cross-legged with green tea in their hands are waiting for orders from high ups to unleash the next round of offensive against Afghans soldiers and the remaining US 2,500 troops, who are too little to do anything significant.
Hardly three weeks back, two documents got leaked, which show-cased anger, frustration, and urgency in the tone of the US. Ghani who derives his negotiating power from the very people he represents has rejected the interim government proposal by calling it non-implementable. Taliban has also expressed skepticism saying such transitional governments have proven ineffective in the past. One thing is clear; the objective of the offer of transition government is to buy more time from the Taliban to renegotiate more things by giving the Taliban a sweet but a little sour candy of power for some time. But the question still arises; will the Taliban accommodate for that minimum, temporary gain? This is exactly where Biden sees himself under pressure at the moment.
It is for sure Biden realizes he is going to be held responsible for more troops’ killings, more bloodshed, and more money going into the vein. He also knows that after unilaterally staying in Afghanistan beyond May 1, the United States will try its best to blame the Taliban for not meeting their end of the bargain, but at the end of the day, it’ll be the United States tearing up the agreement, not the Taliban, squandering any likelihood of future talks. It simply means getting stuck in Afghanistan for another 20 years.
Ghani who is also being labeled as being weak is also trying to assert himself. But deep inside, Ghani knows he is not relaxed. In vee hours, on his bed, he must be thinking of whether those people who have reposed their confidence in him, will he be able to ensure their security by avoiding more killings or not.
There is also a view that the Taliban can work-out a mechanism with the US to give Washington an extension in the deadline of May 1 in return for maximum concessions like more prisoners’ release and more legitimacy from the west. But at the end of the day, it is again up to the Taliban whether they agree to an extension or not. At least for now, they have the guiding stick.
Given Biden’s peculiar approach for Afghanistan, a wild card, he only wants to quit on his own terms without risking backlash from the insurgents. Nevertheless, Biden is under pressure, Ghani is under pressure, but not the Taliban who are ready to wreak havoc.
